Abstract: The FOCI project aims to support the development of policy recommendations by bridging knowledge gaps on the impact of non-CO2 climate forcing pollutants (also known as short-lived climate pollutants -SLCP) such as black carbon, methane, hydrofluorocarbons, and tropospheric ozone and its precursors on climate change and their linkages to air pollution episodes and health impacts. Emissions of non-CO2 forcers are not the focus of scenarios focussing on CO2 mitigation, and do not consider the detail of the policy measures and development priorities of countries. Therefore, there is a need to better understand the options to reduce non-CO2 emissions considering specific national contexts and focussing specifically on reducing these emissions.

A key stage of FOCI is developing historical emission estimations and future projections in specific regions (Latin America and Africa) and globally in key sectors, agriculture, and waste, to understand the influence of current climate change mitigation measures over the medium and long-term on all emitted non-CO2 forcers. In the case of Africa, it has been understudied and the population is projected to double by 2050, with the possibility of exacerbating non-CO2 climate forcing emissions. On the other hand, some Latin American countries have committed to action on non-CO2 climate forcers in their 2030 climate change commitments known as National Determined Contributions (NDC).

According to the recent published literature, although many countries in the Latin America region have estimated and reported their emissions to meet their international commitments, only Argentina, Chile and Colombia have developed their own national emission inventories for different sectors with a spatial and temporal resolution for modelling purposes. Similar works have been performed for specific cities, such as Bogota, Manizales, Medellín, Lima, Santiago de Chile and Rio de Janeiro, or specific sectors such as transport. However, most air quality modelling studies in the region use global datasets (EDGAR, ECLIPSE, CEDS, GAINS, CAMS). Despite that regional information has been included and documented in global statistics, they may miss some specificity and accuracy associated with local practices and technologies that are often better represented in local statistics.

The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) tool has been used to model new nationally appropriate emissions scenarios (historic and projections) for these two case study regions at country level, emphasising major anthropogenic emission source sectors that evaluate the implementation of nationally appropriate and relevant non-CO2 climate forcing mitigation measures. Besides, using LEAP has supported the develop of i) a comprehensive characterisation of historical emissions, including energy demand, and supply sectors, agriculture, waste, and industrial processes using national and local statistics, ii) long-term projections of emissions for a baseline scenario reflecting existing socioeconomic projections in each country in the region, and iii) mitigation scenarios that reflect the implementation of nationally appropriate and/or informed mitigation measures in key energy and non-energy source sectors that are specifically designed to target non-CO2 climate forcer emissions. The emission reduction potential from implementation of a set of specific mitigation options in each region has been quantified as well as the economic costs of implementing non-CO2 mitigation measures.

Keywords: non-CO2 forcers, cost-benefit assessments, mitigation policies, Low Emissions Analysis Platform.